The Dark Sprite?

I generally enjoyed The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, though it's doing the opposite of growing on me. The further I get from it, the less I think of it. (But I'll probably watch it again when it's released on DVD.) And I can't exactly put my finger on why that is - maybe because I'm not sure the movie really said anything - but Jimmy Kimmel might have figured out what was ultimately missing: Batman.



There we go. Now if Brad Pitt had gotten in some brawls and kicked a little ass, as he did in his other collaborations with David Fincher, maybe we would've had a Best Picture winner.

(via /Film)

Maybe Weed Makes the Oscars Funnier

For the benefit of those who may have missed it (such as the person with whom I watched the last 1/3 of the Oscars telecast over the phone), here is the 'Pineapple Express' skit with James Franco and Seth Rogen, in which they celebrate the year in comedy.



The contented look on Franco's (or Saul Silver's) face as the talented young actor named James Franco (who deserved a Best Supporting Actor nomination) makes out with Sean Penn in Milk was my biggest laugh of the evening.

I suppose Janusz Kaminski filled in for Saul's bubbie?

And how about the shot taken at The Reader? Between that and the poke it took during Hugh Jackman's opening song-and-dance number, Kate Winslet had some bruises before she took the stage to accept her Best Actress award. Or was that the classic defense of making fun of yourself so others won't pick on you?

The Acceptance Speech Mickey Rourke Got to Make

As you probably know by now, Sean Penn won the Best Actor award at the Oscars last night, instead of Mickey Rourke. (And though I predicted a Rourke win, I tried to cover my bases by saying Penn deserved the award, in what will eventually be viewed as the more important film.) So not only was Rourke denied recognition for a great performance, but we as a viewing audience were deprived of what surely would've been a memorable acceptance speech.

Fortunately, Rourke won Best Actor at the Independent Spirit Awards on Saturday night, and got to make a speech that was surely more raucous than what he may have intended for the Oscars. (Just be warned if you're watching this at work: This is from the live broadcast, so the profanity isn't bleeped out.)



But hopefully for Rourke's sake, this is the launch of a comeback, and not a landing point. May his next movie choice be a good one. (Do Iron Man 2, Mickey!) Maybe Rourke will get another chance at an Oscar someday, and we'll get to see ABC censors freak out as he walks to the microphone. My fingers are crossed.

If It's Oscars Time, We're Making Predictions!

This is probably being posted too late for anyone to read it before the actual ceremony, but in the name of continuing a FRT institution - five years running, baby - we're predicting the Oscar winners in the so-called major categories. Tomorrow, we'll also be doing our traditional Oscar post-mortem and hand out some of our own awards.

As much as I love the Oscars, however, I don't feel as much enthusiasm for them as in recent years. Largely because I don't believe there's going to be much suspense, other than in two or three categories. (Maybe it's always been that way, and I talk myself into believing some awards are up for grabs. Or maybe I read so many movie blogs now that conventional wisdom seems more locked in than it used to be.)

In addition, I usually think the Academy gets it right with the Best Picture nominees, but I wasn't thrilled with their choices this year. I still think Doubt got screwed. How can every actor in the cast be recognized, yet the film itself doesn't get nominated. And I'm still disappointed a more daring choice like The Dark Knight or WALL-E wasn't made.

But I'm very curious to see how Hugh Jackman does as host. I think not having a comedian sounds like a bad idea, but maybe this is one of those daring choices that I just accused the Academy of not making. Plus, he's Wolverine. So he'll get it done somehow. Also, I really want to see if Mickey Rourke wins and what he might say in an acceptance speech.

Okay, here's how I think it'll go:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis - Doubt

I know - she's only in the movie for, like, 10 minutes. But it's a great 10 minutes, especially when you have to go toe-to-toe with Meryl Streep. I also think Doubt has to win something tonight, and this is where it'll be. I have to admit, however, I didn't see Vicky Christina Barcelona (though I just got it from Netflix), so I can't say if the herd has it right on this one.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight

Probably the lock of the night, don't you think? Other than a happy ending for the Mickey Rourke rebirth story, this will likely be the most emotional moment of the evening. And it's not like Ledger doesn't deserve this award. It may have been the most memorable performance in any movie last year.

BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Actually, this could be the lock of the night. I didn't see The Reader, nor do I have much interest in doing so, despite the promise of Winslet getting naked. Thankfully, she's done that in plenty of other movies, a dedication to craft that will finally be saluted tonight.

BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

I haven't posted my thoughts on The Wrestler, though I still intend to because I have a lot to say about it. But - spoiler alert - I loved it, and still think about it weeks after I saw it (twice). Rourke's performance was amazing, but I also wonder if his story has kind of overwhelmed critical opinion. Not to say I'm not guilty of that, either. I've read or watched as many recent interviews with him as I can, and gone back to read profiles from five to 10 years ago. It would be great to see Rourke win this when he's been painfully honest about how badly he's screwed his life up.

However, if you're talking about the craft of acting, Sean Penn completely becomes someone else in Milk. It's unlike anything else I've ever seen him do, and there's nothing showy or over-the-top about it. So I think there's a damn good chance he wins this.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

This isn't just because Boyle directed the likely Best Picture winner. But of the five nominees, I think he also created the most consistent, exciting film. Frost/Nixon really takes a while to get going. I'm not sure 'Benjamin Button' ever really does get going. And though I believe Milk is Gus Van Sant's best film, it sometimes feels formulaic. Slumdog Millionaire just feels alive. Boyle quick cuts when the action calls for it, he slows down when he has to, splices in flashbacks at just the right time, juggles humor and drama skillfully, and uses music masterfully.

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire

Well, I think I already described what makes 'Slumdog' a worthy winner. I'll add, however, that it has quite possibly the best ending credits sequence that I can remember. If any of the other nominees has a chance at winning, I believe it's Milk. And years from now, we'll probably be saying that was the more important film. But there's also something to be said for acknowledging the zeitgeist and embracing a cultural phenomenon as it occurs, and 'Slumdog' has definitely tapped into something.

And because we're all about the writers, the screenplay awards must also be mentioned. I'm going to predict a surprise for BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY. Martin McDonagh is going to win for In Bruges - creating a strangely touching, though unquestionably dark and violent, story around four or five memorable characters - though Andrew Stanton is probably the favorite for WALL-E. And Simon Beaufoy will get BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY for Slumdog Millionaire.

Finally, I predict an 11:45 p.m EST ending for the festivities. Jackman will move the show along as best he can, but some of those speeches are going to run on.

Jon Stewart Has No Curiosity For Benjamin Button

I enjoyed The Curious Case of Benjamin Button for the most part (though I'd lean toward outrage if it wins the Best Picture Oscar), but Jon Stewart's thoughts on the film were still pretty hilarious.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Intro - Slumdog Millionaire

Daily Show Full Episodes
Funny Political Videos

Important Things With Demetri Martin
More Funny Videos

That was from Tuesday's show, if you missed it, which also included a fun interview with Slumdog Millionaire's Dev Patel.

Trying to Catch Some Oscar Fever

Continuing a four-year tradition here at Fried Rice Thoughts, we post the Academy Award nominations (which I didn't even realize were being announced today, until I saw something on Twitter) for your perusal, along with some thoughts on the nominees.

You can read the complete list here, but for now, these are the major categories (and as a writer, I always have to include the screenwriters):

Best supporting actress:
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Best supporting actor:
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Best Director:
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Best Original Screenplay:
Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon - WALL-E

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Eric Roth - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
David Hare - The Reader
Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture:
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button


Quick thoughts:

▪▪ Okay, let's just get it out of the way: It's a big disappointment not to see The Dark Knight among the Best Picture nominees. I had no delusions that it would actually win the award (Though The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King won in 2004, so would it really be that weird?), but I thought Batman would at least get nominated.

Maybe it's the comic book fan in me seeking validation, but this was one of the five best movies of the year. C'mon, Oscar - at least give Christopher Nolan a Best Director nod.

▪▪ Looking at the nominees for Best Supporting Actor, I think Heath Ledger definitely has a shot at a posthumous win.

▪▪ Doubt also got hosed for Best Picture.

So which two movies would I have taken off? Well, I haven't seen The Reader, so that would be an easy choice for me. And though I enjoyed it, and think it's quite a filmmaking achievement for David Fincher, I'd probably kick The Curious Case of Benjamin Button off the list, too.

▪▪ My sit-up-and-clap nominee this year? Richard Jenkins. The Visitor was a fantastic movie, with an ending that I still can't shake, and it's largely because of the arc Jenkins's character follows.

A close second would be Amy Adams, who hasn't been getting nearly enough acclaim for her performance in Doubt. An Oscar nomination takes care of that, I'd say.

▪▪ Robert Downey, Jr. brought me a smile. My love and admiration for the man has not been hidden on this blog, and I'm glad to see him get some recognition for the year he had, but I'd have rather seen him nominated for Iron Man.

However, there's one scene of his in Tropic Thunder that amazes me. If you haven't seen it, I'll try not to spoil it for you, but it involves his disguise as a rice paddy farmer.

▪▪ In place of Downey, I'd have nominated Sam Rockwell for Frost/Nixon or James Franco for Milk.

▪▪ The toughest category is probably Best Actor. You could make a great case for any of the nominees (though maybe I shouldn't comment on Rourke, since I haven't seen The Wrestler yet), but Sean Penn looks like the favorite to me.

▪▪ And I love Clint Eastwood, but I was glad to see he didn't get nominated for basically playing Archie Bunker in Gran Torino.

▪▪ Kate Winslet has to be a lock for Best Actress, right? With the nominations it received, The Reader has to win one award. Here it is. And it's not like she isn't overdue.

The Oscars Post-Mortem: More Awards and a Lil' Bit o' Braggin'

The 2008 Oscars were a rather predictable affair, with only a couple of unexpected winners. Despite the lack of surprises, however, there will still quite a few notable moments - as there almost always are. Both The Film Geek and Susannah captured many of them in their respective live blogs. (And kudos for those efforts. The closest I could come to live-blogging myself was updating my Twitter page. Watching the show alone, my mind just wandered a bit too much in the slow moments.)

I know bringing a host back year after year is a sure way to get tired of someone, but I'd love to see Jon Stewart emcee this thing again next year. Someone who could poke some fun at the tensions caused by the writers' strike (i.e., his joke about writers being invited to the Vanity Fair party), yet also found himself directly affected by the work stoppage was the right guy for the job.

Being hilarious - such as when he joked that the only time we see a female or black president is when a meteorite is about to hit the Statue of Liberty - doesn't hurt, either. (Stewart and his 'Daily Show' crew were responsible for the "Binoculars and Periscopes montage," I take it. That was a gem.) Having little preparation time suited Stewart's wit and improvisation just fine. He didn't hit a false note all night, and often seemed genuinely happy for many of the winners.

Here are the awards I would've passed out last night (and the list of actual winners):

Why Didn't They Think of This Before?
Regis on the red carpet! No one's getting in another word when Regis is holding the microphone. For example, when George Clooney made the mistake of asking him if Notre Dame won their basketball game earlier in the day. "Notre Dame finally WINNING AGAIN! Isn't that good, George?" Whatever you say, Reeg.

Okay, Maybe That's Why They Didn't
Inside the Kodak Theater just before the festivities began, Regis called Javier Bardem "Xavier Bardem." Where's that cattle stun gun when you need it? It's your business to get those names right, Friendo. Especially when the dude brought his mother along as a date.

I'm Not Sure I've Ever Seen a Tuxedo Tighter Than a Dress
The aforementioned Mr. Bardem, whose suit almost seemed to be wrapped around his body. Maybe I'm just jealous, since there's no way I'll ever be that thin.

That Nipple Joke Never Gets Old
Clooney will never live down having to wear the Batman suit with the nipples, will he? And Tilda Swinton just had to go there during her acceptance speech. Of course, Clooney can take it, which is why so many people seem to enjoy giving him a rabbit punch.

Where's a Rolled-Up Newspaper When You Need It?
I thought we were done having to endure Jerry Seinfeld and Bee Movie. Yet there he/it was, presenting an award. That must play great in the Kodak Theater. I thought that movie's original network tie-in was with NBC. Is the DVD coming out this week or something?

Hung Out to Dry
Poor Amy Adams, having to sing all alone on stage, with no dancers, cartoons, or anything else that could've accentuated her performance. She gave it the best she could, but had to be jealous when she saw the production Kristin Chenoweth got for her musical number.

Letdown of the Night
Roderick Jaynes not winning for Best Film Editing, which would've put Joel and Ethan Coen in the interesting position of having to accept the award for their fictional alias. It's just as well, I suppose, since the Coen brothers got plenty of stage time during the night (though Ethan gets brownie points for his short and direct acceptances). Still, maybe the Coens planned on sending an old man up there, like when Marlon Brando sent "Sasheen Littlefeather" in his place.

Speeches Can Be Good!
To me, Steven Soderbergh had the best acceptance speech in 2001, in which he thanked everyone who spends part of their day creating art. Glen Hansard imploring people to "Make art!" at the end of his speech last night was inspiring, as well.

First Class All the Way
Jon Stewart's finest moment (and it seemed to be his decision) was bringing Marketa Irglova back on stage after the orchestra rudely played her off before the commercial break. And Irglova made it truly memorable with a great speech saluting struggling musicians and artists who keep pursuing their dreams.

(You can see both speeches here.)

Wilma!
I hate to make fun of her, because she had a very touching acceptance speech, but Diablo Cody's dress looked like wardrobe from the Flintstones. It was an especially baffling choice after the va-va-voom she showed off the night before at the Independent Spirit Awards.

(And while I'm talking about va-va-voom, it's very disappointing that there were no obvious winners of the Best Cleavage award, which is one I spend a lot of time and effort researching. Where's Salma Hayek when you need her?)

So how'd I do on my Oscar picks? Really well, thanks for asking. Yet so many of the winners were locks that I didn't exactly have to be bold with my predictions. And I whiffed on both of the screenplay awards. Of course, I did nail the two actress awards, so maybe I'll strut a little bit.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My pick: Tilda Swinton
Actual winner: Tilda Swinton

Susannah picked Tilda Swinton to win, too, so I can't get too high and mighty about that. But I think the popular opinion was with Cate Blanchett, and if you'd asked me back in December, I would've said she was guaranteed an Oscar. But there was just something about Swinton's performance. That, and the apparent sentiment that Michael Clayton was too good a movie not to win something - which shouldn't ever be a factor, but you know it is.

BEST ACTRESS
My pick: Marion Cotillard
Actual winner: Marion Cotillard

Cotillard completely transformed herself to play Edith Piaf. It's as simple as that. Sure, she had a lot of help from make-up (which was also an Oscar-winning effort), but Cotillard seemed to shrink her body as La Vie En Rose went on. That was only more apparent when you saw the hot French babe that took the stage to accept her award.

Before I go, I'd just like to thank my TV for working last night, and both my laptop and new home wireless network for cooperating this afternoon and allowing me to type out this post. This is for everyone out there who spent part of last night or today writing about the Oscars. Write blogs! Write blogs!

We're Still Predicting the Oscars!

Was anyone else surprised to hear that the Oscars are this Sunday? I guess I'd become so used to the idea that there wouldn't be an Academy Awards ceremony because of the writers' strike that I'd basically written it off my internal calendar.

But since the show will be going on (and we probably should've expected the strike to end before the Oscars, since it's such a showcase moment for Hollywood), we'll continue the tradition - four years running - of predicting the winners in the so-called major categories. (Hey, if Jon Stewart can cram four months of preparation into eight days, it's the least I could do.) Another FRT Oscar tradition we'll try to continue on Monday are the next-day awards - also now four years running - where I'll laugh at others in an attempt to mask the pain of my predictions gone wrong.

Okay, here's how I think it'll go:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

This is probably the toughest category of the night. Cate Blanchett made the greatest transformation as Bob Dylan in I'm Not There, while Amy Ryan made an utterly repugnant character compelling and even somewhat sympathetic in Gone Baby Gone. You could argue that Blanchett's performance is gimmicky, but she already won in 2005 for sort of imitating Katharine Hepburn. So I'm taking my shot here. Tilda Swinton did the most with what she was given, and made you care about a seemingly sleazy character. She's almost as much of a star in Michael Clayton as George Clooney.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men

Lock of the night. In Anton Chigurh, Bardem created the most memorable character of the year, and gave us a villain we'll be talking about for decades. Not too many guys would present fearsome opposition to Josh Brolin's bad-ass Llewellyn Moss, but Bardem is the unstoppable force to his immovable object. The audience gasps when Chigurh comes on the screen, because they know what's coming. And if he delays the inevitable - as in the coin toss exchange with the gas station clerk that you've probably seen, even if you haven't seen No Country For Old Men - the tension is almost unbearable.

BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose

Watching La Vie En Rose a couple of days ago might have influenced this pick just a smidge. I've already publicly stated my affection for Ms. Cotillard on this blog. But this would be the wrong movie to check out because you think she's sexy. Playing Edith Piaf probably isn't going to do it for you. But even without the make-up, Cotillard becomes another person. She ages - and not so gracefully. And though Piaf's songs are dubbed over her performance, her body language makes it clear that she's not just lip-syncing.

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Probably the other lock of the night. There's just not going to be much suspense in the male acting categories. I haven't seen all of the nominated performances, but I can't imagine either of them are responsible for carrying his film the way Day-Lewis does. The transformation he makes in his voice alone is probably award-worthy. It's kind of stunning to hear Day-Lewis' naturally soft, British-accented voice in interviews, because he's such an unyielding force of nature in There Will Be Blood. And even when the story turns a bit cartoonish toward the end, he sells it because his character remains consistent throughout the movie. No one could get more out of two words - "I'm finished" - than Day-Lewis.

BEST DIRECTOR
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men

Looking at the Coen brothers' recent output, you might wonder if their directorial careers had jumped the shark. Ever since O Brother, Where Art Thou? Joel and Ethan just hadn't found much filmmaking magic. Getting a couple of duds out of their system seemed to have cleaned out their creative pipes. Or maybe they found Cormac McCarthy at just the right time. There's only a little bit of the Coens' trademark quirk in No Country For Old Men, and it's probably the best movie they've ever made. Besides, the Academy owes 'em an Oscar after shafting Fargo back in 1996.

BEST PICTURE
No Country For Old Men

This isn't a lock, as There Will Be Blood would be a very worthy winner, as well. But to me, Blood felt like kind of an ordeal at times, but Daniel Day-Lewis' performance (along with Paul Dano's) keeps pushing you through it. No Country, on the other hand, is a freight train that keeps on rolling. You want to see where the story goes, as opposed to wondering where it will end up. Maybe it's not the right criterion, but I think the Best Picture winner should be a movie that we're talking about years from now. Paul Thomas Anderson's film is fresher in my memory, as I just saw it two weeks ago, but I think the Coens' work is more memorable.

We should also mention the screenplay awards, since the writers have shown just how important they are, and were the reason there almost wasn't an Oscars ceremony. It would surely be more fun if Diablo Cody won BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, but I think her story's (not her screenplay) has gone about as far as it can go already. Juno probably has to win something for all its nominations, however, and maybe this is where that happens. I'm actually going to pick Tony Gilroy for much the same reason. Michael Clayton didn't have the most coherent plot, but Gilroy created one hell of a story around him. In a different year, he might have won Best Picture.

For BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, the award has to go to Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. I don't know how anyone could've read that memoir and think, "I can make a movie out of this." But Harwood figured out the device of telling the story through Jean-Dominique Bauby's eyes, rather than depict what happens to him or goes on around him. That is adaptation, baby.

Since there really aren't any bold predictions to make among the nominees this year, I'll go out on a limb for the running time. This is the year the Oscars end by 11 p.m. EST. Yes, that's still a three-hour ceremony, but after the writers' strike, no one's had time to come up with canned intros and presentations. A little dose of humility will keep the show moving.

There Will Be Oscars... Presumably

I'm not sure how much the Academy Awards will matter if the writers' strike isn't resolved by the time the ceremony is scheduled (February 24).  The Golden Globes were a great example of the "if a tree falls in a forest, but no one is around to hear it..." axiom with their attempt to do the show as a press conference, rather than its usual celebrity-stocked, loose-lipped fashion show.

But here at Fried Rice Thoughts, we've posted something about the Oscar nominations for three years running, and I'd hate to be a roadblock for tradition.

You can read the complete list here, but for now, these are the categories I think most of us care about the most:

Best supporting actress:
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Best supporting actor:
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem - No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

Best Actor:
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Best Director:
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jason Reitman - Juno
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Best Original Screenplay:
Diablo Cody - Juno
Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, and Jim Capobianco - Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Christopher Hampton - Atonement
Sarah Polley - Away From Her
Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country For Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Best Picture:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Quick thoughts:

▪▪ I think Jennifer Garner kind of got hosed.  She was fantastic in Juno.  But her competition is tough, so I don't think she would've won, anyway. And Juno got plenty of love in other categories, so maybe that was enough.

Kelly McDonald in No Country For Old Men would've been a good pick too, now that I think about it.

▪▪ Who would I have taken off in favor of Garner?  Well, I haven't seen Atonement, so I'd say Ruby Dee.  She was good in American Gangster, but I can really only think of one scene in which she stood out.

Robert Downey, Jr. would've been a nice Best Supporting Actor pick for Zodiac too, but I don't know who I'd take off that list.

▪▪ Who should win Best Supporting Actress? Tilda Swinton.  That was the one sit-up-and-clap nominee for me.

▪▪ Looking over each of the categories, I'm not sure anyone's a lock for a winner.  Okay, Daniel Day-Lewis is probably a cinch for Best Actor.  But I haven't seen There Will Be Blood yet, so I really can't say much about that.  (Hopefully, that'll change this weekend.)

▪▪ Javier Bardem might be a lock for Best Supporting Actor, too.  But Philip Seymour Hoffman (who also could've been nominated for both The Savages and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead) and Hal Holbrook (despite only about 10-15 minutes of screen time) both had great performances in their roles.

▪▪ Man, I really need to see There Will Be Blood.  That and Atonement are the Best Picture nominees I haven't seen yet.  I need to rent Eastern Promises, too.

▪▪ I don't think he will, but I'd love to see Julian Schnabel win Best Director for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

The 3rd Annual Fried Rice Thoughts Post-Oscar Post!

Roger Ebert said it was "elegant and somehow gentle." David Poland called it "the worst produced Oscar show in memory." I guess I'm somewhere between the two extremes, but leaning more toward Ebert's side. I don't know if it was a particularly memorable show, but is it ever? If so, it's usually for something horribly bad. (Actually, the pre-show was pretty awful. The Hot Button explains how that "Happy Feet" intro fell apart in the making, and thus was essentially demoted in the broadcast.)

At least there was plenty of live blog worthy material, which Susannah demonstrated at Pub of Knowledge. And she graciously mentioned that I was almost dead-on with my prediction of the show's running time, which I wasn't going to point out. (Okay, I totally was.)

What I most enjoyed was that Ellen DeGeneres stuck with the style that's always worked for her: somewhat awkward humor that doesn't generate big laughs, but sustains long giggles. I really liked the "normal person hosting the Oscars" tone she took on. Not too deferential, no arrogance at all. The bit with Clint Eastwood and Steven Spielberg was hilarious.

I also really liked the effort to tout the lesser known nominees. I know everyone tunes in to see the stars, but they get enough screen time. Let the other people deserve some spotlight, too. Errol Morris' film at the beginning of the ceremony was a nice touch.

One day late (which is becoming typical for me in 2007) are the awards I would've passed out (and the list of actual winners):

Please Tell Me He'll Never Work an Oscars Broadcast Again:
Andre Leon Talley. You, sir, may know fashion, but you do not know live television. How about learning how to hold a microphone while you're interviewing someone?

Shouldn't They Be Somehow Offended by That?
Guillermo Del Toro, Alfonso Cuaron, and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu being referred to as "The Three Amigos." Ha ha ha! Because they're Mexican! C'mon, we can't be more original than that?

Consider Yourself Permanently Invited Even If You're Not Nominated Because You Always Look Amazing:
Cate Blanchett. Has she ever not looked stunning at the Oscars? It's like she was sent from another planet to save us.

Stop! Please, You've Already Done Too Much:
Nicole Kidman and her face. Did she permanently disable her face from expression so when Keith Urban asks what she thinks of his latest country dreck, she can't frown? She was already so beautiful. What the hell is she doing?

He Should Be the Oscars Host Next Year:
Will Smith's kid, Jaden (and his half-dozen middle names). "Our next presenters are two more people taller than me. When the hell is this thing ending? Can we go home, Dad?" But don't pair him with another kid again. That's just condescending.

Look, I Get Enough Presidential Campaigning From the News, Okay?
Al Gore. I thought the bit with him being played off stage by the orchestra was kind of funny. And Tipper probably got jealous over how Leonardo DiCaprio was looking at her husband so adoringly. Maybe it's not his fault, but enough already. Give his platform the attention it deserves, but the dude's not running for President.

Suavest Mofo on the Planet:
Ken Watanabe. Not only does he just look regal and dapper, but did you see how he waited and then held his arm out to escort Catherine Deneuve to the podium for their presentation? Smooth as pudding, baby. What a gentleman. I totally want to be that guy. At least when I have to dress up.

Yes, Okay - I Promise I Will Finally See It:
Pan's Labyrinth. Did it only win three awards? It felt like a dozen. I stomped up and down for weeks that we weren't getting to see this movie here in the Midwest. And now that it's been here for a few weeks, I still haven't seen it. I hoped I'd be able to shoehorn a screening in on Sunday afternoon, but that fell through. I'm taking care of that this week, man.

Eat a Sandwich Because I'm Starting to Worry About You:
Reese Witherspoon. Don't lose much more weight, kiddo. You don't need to. And when your cheeks disappear, it makes your face kind of look like the female Joker.

Still Not Sure If I Hated It or Thought It Was Cool:
Pilobolus, and their weird, contortionist shadow puppetry. I'd love to have them at a party, constantly making new shapes behind the largest wall in the room, but it just seemed to disrupt what (little) rhythm the show had. Forming a gun for The Departed was pretty cool, though.

Just Have Them Walk Down a Runway:
Bringing the Best Costume Design nominees to life by outfitting dancers and actors on stage probably seemed like a good idea, but it looked something from an amusement park ride. I hope Eddie Murphy got to beat up that dope who was imitating his character from Dreamgirls backstage after the show.

Best Cleavage:
I was looking forward to giving this award to Salma Hayek for the third consecutive year, but she apparently didn't attend the ceremony. It looked like all Latino actresses were invited. How could J-Lo be there and not Salma Hayek? Sadly, everyone seemed to cover the goods up this year, which means there will be no winner. (But you came close, Rachel Weisz. And maybe Jennifer Hudson too, but in more of an accidental manner.)

And, for the third year in a row, because my Mom wants to know, here's how I did on my Oscar picks. This really wasn't a year to be daring, was it?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My pick: Alan Arkin
Actual winner: Alan Arkin

You know me; I don't like to brag. But I'm pretty proud of calling this one. (Suz got it, too!) I was happy to see Arkin win. Meanwhile, I'm sure Eddie Murphy missed some post-Oscar party (all the) time because he was on the phone with Dreamworks, bitching at 'em for releasing Norbit while people were deciding their Oscar votes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My pick: Abigail Breslin
Actual winner: Jennifer Hudson

Okay, that was probably a dumb pick. Dreamgirls had to get an award for something, right? Hudson's just a great out-of-nowhere story, and she was so surprisingly impressive in her role. And it was nice to see someone with that "Oh my God, please let me win this" look on her face before the winner was announced.

BEST ACTRESS
My pick: Helen Mirren
Actual winner: Helen Mirren

The lock of the night. Even Will Ferrell and Jack Black (with John C. Reilly) knew that. Seeing how gorgeous she looked only reaffirmed how amazing her performance as Queen Elizabeth really was.

BEST ACTOR
My pick: Forest Whitaker
Actual winner: Forest Whitaker

This was pretty much a lock, too. It was great to see Whitaker get a spotlight type of role like this, after what's been a relatively quirky career. Let's just hope he doesn't start doing a bunch of $#!+ty action movies like Nicolas Cage now.

BEST DIRECTOR
My pick: Martin Scorsese
Actual winner: Martin Scorsese

Another lock, right? Where was the suspense? As happy as I was for Scorsese, I also felt a little sad because it shouldn't have taken this long for him to win an Oscar. But I love how his face was all eyebrows, glasses and smile. And note to future winners: If Martin Scorsese can keep his acceptance speech short, you have no excuse to ramble on.

BEST PICTURE
My pick: Letters From Iwo Jima
Actual winner: The Departed

This was definitely my dumbest prediction. I just thought the Academy would somehow manage to screw Scorsese over again while giving Eastwood more love (for what was an outstanding movie). But this was absolutely Scorsese's year. Wouldn't it have been an all-time letdown had The Departed not won after he received his long overdue coronation? As subdued as the overall show was, I think a riot or explosion might have resulted. At the very least, Jack Nicholson's head would've immediately sprouted hair.

Ladies and gentleman, that's our post-Oscar post! Thank you and good night!

Ladies and Gentleman, the 3rd annual Oscar predictions post!

I don't know what's been wrong with me when it comes to posting about movies this year. I still have a half-written "Best Movies I Saw in 2006" post sitting in the "draft" box. By the time I get around to finishing it, it'll be halfway through 2007. Should I even bother at this point? If the best movie I saw last year happens to be the same as this year's Best Picture winner, I'll just look like a coat-tailing schmuck. But since my favorite movie wasn't even nominated, I might just still do it. (What a tease.)

And I couldn't post my Oscar picks on Friday, when most people would have a chance to read them before the ceremony? What the hell? So here I am on an early Sunday morning, typing them up, just so the record (and time stamp) can show that if I did make a brilliantly counter-intuitive prediction, it was before the actual awards were handed out. Why do I even care? Because I've done this the previous two years, and I'm trying to maintain a sense of tradition here at Fried Rice Thoughts. Plus, now that football season's over, I'm kind of bored on Sundays.

So approximately 12 hours before the presentation begins (the red carpet stuff should start any minute now on E!), here's how I think it'll go. Another FRT Oscar tradition is my next-day awards, which I clearly just make up as I go along, and slapping myself for the stupid predictions I made.

Okay, this is going on almost as long as Joan and Melissa on the red carpet. Let's do this thing:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine

Everyone's saying Jennifer Hudson will win this, which makes me want to swim against the current. Yes, Hudson was very good in Dreamgirls - which was rather overrated, and just bound to disappoint after all the hype it received - but to me, her performance is really about one thing: "And I Am Telling You I'm Not Going." And I am telling you that shouldn't be enough to win Best Supporting Actress. I'll take the scene in Little Miss Sunshine when little Olive Hoover cries to her grandfather because she doesn't want her father to think she's a loser. You know what? If Abigail Breslin doesn't nail that role, there's not much of a movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine

Again, the nominee from Dreamgirls is the popular pick, and Eddie Murphy is the best part of that movie. It'd be nice to see him win because it would kind of bring his career full-circle. He became famous for imitating James Brown on Saturday Night Live, and wins an Oscar for expanding that into an actual role. But I'm going with the Little Miss Sunshine nominee again. Alan Arkin's character might be crazy, but could also be the most sane guy in this totally dysfunctional family. And he's hilarious. Plus, if you like seeing a guy be rewarded for a career, this could do it.

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren - The Queen

Okay, even I can't fight against the prevailing opinion on this one. It'd be cool if Penelope Cruz won, but that's just not going to happen. Not when Helen Mirren completely becomes another person. She could play Queen Elizabeth without the make-up and clothes. And considering what a devious, saucy little minx she seems like in real life, it looks even more impressive. There are many scenes in which Mirren doesn't even say a word, yet conveys exactly what she needs to. She softens as the story progresses, but never loses that sense of regality. Even if she has to bend on her beliefs, she's not going to change who she is.

BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

I am terrified that Peter O'Toole could win this, and if he does, it will be for the worst of reasons. First of all, it'll be a sympathy vote, and he already got his Honorary Award in 2003. I'm slso worried that some people might vote for O'Toole because they think he'll give a more entertaining speech than Forest Whitaker. Plus, O'Toole basically plays himself in Venus - though I hope he's not quite as leering and creepy as his character. But Whitaker, as Helen Mirren did, becomes another person. His Idi Amin is a dominating force. He's intimidating, cruel, erratic, and evil. Yet he's also very charismatic and charming, so you can see how he came to power.

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese - The Departed

Even if Martin Scorsese didn't make a great movie, I think Jon Stewart basically shamed the Academy Awards into finally giving him his due with that "For those of you who are keeping score at home, I just want to make something very clear: Martin Scorsese, zero Oscars; Three 6 Mafia, one" crack. But he did make a great movie this time, and it was the kind of film he's known for - not a stretch like Gangs of New York or The Aviator (though I really liked that one). He deserves to finally be honored for that. Plus, it might be the longest Oscar acceptance speech made in the shortest length of time. The dude talks fast is what I'm saying.

BEST PICTURE
Letters From Iwo Jima

Call it a hunch. The Departed absolutely should win this award. It had great performances, a timeless story, and it just crackled with energy. However, if another film wins, it'll probably be Little Miss Sunshine (which I'd actually be okay with) or Babel (which won last year, under the title Crash). But I can't shake this feeling that Letters From Iwo Jima will somehow win. We know the Oscars love Clint Eastwood, and he made a poignant film about war that also applies to current events. (Ken Watanabe, by the way, wuz robbed of a Best Actor nomination.) I hope I'm wrong, but that's my longshot pick.

And I always have to mention the screenplay awards, because no one cares about writers at the Oscars, and someone has to stick up for them. William Monahan will probably win BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY award for The Departed, but since it's virtually a note-for-note retelling of Infernal Affairs, I'm picking Todd Field and Tom Perrotta for Little Children because they did exactly what the award says.

For BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY, I'd like to see Peter Morgan be rewarded for writing two great movies this year - The Queen and The Last King of Scotland - but what was more original than Pan's Labyrinth? A story about a little girl who escapes into fairy tales and fables during the Spanish Civil War? No one else is writing films like this. Having said all that, Michael Arndt will win for Little Miss Sunshine. I should've just said that to begin with, right?

Oh, and my final prediction: The Oscars broadcast will end at 12:15 AM, Eastern Standard Time. Yep, it'll be another long one. (That's what she said.)

Taking my temperature for Oscar Fever

You know, I told myself I didn't care as much this year, but I still found myself excited this morning in anticipation of the Academy Award nominations this morning. Two things I realized as the nominees were announced:

1) I miss my laptop. Man, I'd have had this $#!+ up an hour ago, otherwise. Plus, jotting stuff down on a notebook makes me feel like I'm working. I'll scribble for money, dammit. But not while I'm still having my morning coffee.

2) I lamented this last week, but I haven't seen that many of the nominated films this year (only two of the Best Picture candidates, for instance), which bugs me. And here I considered myself a film buff.

So for the second year in a row, even though you may have seen these elsewhere by the time you read this, I took the time to type these out, dammit, so I'm posting 'em!

(Also, once again - I should've just waited until the complete list was posted online. This is almost a carbon copy of the post I wrote last year. Mailin' it in here, people.)

Best supporting actress:
Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Best supporting actor:
Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

Best Actress:
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Kate Winslet - Little Children

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

Best Director:
Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Paul Greengrass - United 93

Best Original Screenplay:
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Borat
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

[Normally, I'd list the screenwriters for these categories. I'm all about the writers. But a couple of these screenplays had multiple credits. Borat, for instance, has four writers listed. Children of Men has five.]

Best Picture:
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Assorted initial thoughts springing to mind?

▪▪ A lot of the TV coverage right now is focusing on Dreamgirls being snubbed for Best Director and Best Picture. But I haven't seen it, so I really have nothing to say on the subject.

However, I do think The Departed got hosed in the acting categories. Leonardo DiCaprio got nominated for the wrong role. I can see leaving Jack Nicholson out because he was "being Jack" for much of the movie. And Matt Damon was really good, too. But they did pick Mark Wahlberg, which is cool. He was relentlessly hilarious in that role.

▪▪ Quick pick for a lock? Alan Arkin for Best Supporting Actor in Little Miss Sunshine.

▪▪ What exactly was the Borat screenplay an adaptation of? Maybe since it takes a character from a TV show, it's considered "adapted"?

▪▪ How much of a roll is Clint Eastwood on? The only reason he didn't get nominated last year is because he didn't make a movie. Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, and now Letters From Iwo Jima (which, by the way, was his second film this year)? That is one hell of a streak. Maybe the best filmmaker America has right now.

▪▪ Staying in the Best Director category, the one sit-up-and-clap nominee for me was Paul Greengrass for United 93. (A close second was Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine.) It was an amazingly powerful film, but seems to have suffered from hitting theaters just a bit too early. Had this been released in the fall, I think it would be receiving a lot more credit and praise. It was one of the best movies of the year.

▪▪ That reminds me - I still need to type up the Fried Rice Favorite Movies of 2006 list. I'll try to get on that later tonight. (That's what she said!)

▪▪ Nothing really jumps out as a "wrong" pick to me, though I'm kind of surprised that Blood Diamond received two acting nominations. But it's not like they're undeserved. Both DiCaprio and Hounson were very good. I thought the movie was a little bit preachy, but it's meant to make you think about what's going on in the world, which isn't a bad thing.

▪▪ So I guess I need to see Babel, eh? Wasn't really planning on that. Iñárritu's previous two films - Amores Perros and 21 Grams - were so utterly bleak and depressing, and I just wasn't up for that.

Why did I bother: the 78th Academy Awards

On Friday, USA Today's Whitney Matheson said she had a feeling the Oscars would be "rather long and tedious." When I read that, I hoped she was wrong. But she nailed it exactly. I enjoy watching the Oscars, treating it almost like a big sporting event, but last night's show was really boring. I had it on in the background, but looked for other things to do throughout the telecast. My checkbook is balanced. My laundry is done. My desk is clean, mostly because I finally blew through all of the magazines I'd picked up over the past couple of months.

I thought Jon Stewart would be the best part of the show, but he lost me at the opening monologue, which just felt forced. He seemed awkward most of the night, like he was holding back the jokes he really wanted to tell. But I did like the "Daily Show"-esque pre-taped segments, like the "negative campaign ads" and Tom Hanks' demonstration of what would happen to anyone whose speech ran too long.

Here are the awards I would've passed out (and a list of actual winners):

I Am a Woman and My Dress Proves It: Felicity Huffman.

(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/AP)

I Won Last Year So I Don't Have to Wear a Tie (and Oh Yeah, I'm Morgan Freeman): Morgan Freeman

Best Actress Accessory: Pregnancy (and post-pregnancy). Did you see Rachel Weisz as she stepped up to accept her award? Hoo mama. And Jennifer Garner was so... full (as my mother, the post-partum care nurse, would say), her balance was thrown off. Did you see her stumble?

Best Cleavage (non-mother): Salma Hayek. A repeat winner from last year, and the winner every year she attends the Oscars. Which award did she present, anyway?

Smartest Guy in the Room: Jack Nicholson, for getting his seat next to Keira Knightley.

Hey, That's How I'd Dress: Larry McMurtry, co-winner for Best Adapted Screenplay. He was already one of my literary heroes, but after seeing him dressed in blue jeans with a tuxedo jacket and top, I look up to him for his fashion sense, as well.

Worst Idea: Playing music through each winner's entire acceptance speech. It reminded me of when Howard Stern plays sad music during Robin Quivers' newscast. (Close second: the production numbers for two of the three Best Song nominees. Burning cars onstage? Pimps and ho's dancing?)

That Guy Loves Himself: M. Night Shyamalan and his MasterCard commercial, in which a fan comes up to tell him how great his films are. Did Shyamalan write the ad himself? I don't think you'd see any other director in a self-congratulating ad like that.

Wow, That Looks Stupid: This isn't Oscar-related, but ABC's new reality show, American Inventor, looks awful. Having said that, should we bet that I'll somehow be watching it by April?

And, once again, because my Mom wants to know, here's how I did on my Oscar picks. My future is clearly not in prognosticating:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
My pick: Matt Dillon
Actual winner: George Clooney

Did I really pick against Clooney? Man, that was dumb. As RC pointed out in Friday's comments, Clooney had "the buzz" around him. Plus, the guy had to win something, with nominations for acting, writing, and directing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
My pick: Michelle Williams
Actual winner: Rachel Weisz

Weisz was good in The Constant Gardener, but this is where the Oscars really got it wrong. (Though Evan called it right.) Williams had the more impressive performance. Plus, her dress deserved to go onstage. She looked great.

(Photo by Steve Granitz/ WireImage.com)

BEST ACTRESS
My pick: Reese Witherspoon
Actual winner: Reese Witherspoon

Like I said, this was the lock of the night. Maybe a little too long with the speech, though. Where was the blowdart from the clarinet when we needed it?

BEST ACTOR
My pick: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Actual winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman

I thought this was a lock, too, though Hoffman's competition was tougher than Witherspoon's. I was just glad to see him get rewarded, because he makes daring choices that don't usually get Oscar nominations.

BEST DIRECTOR
My pick: Ang Lee
Actual winner: Ang Lee

You know, this was probably a lock, too. Lee made the best movie (in my opinion), and deserved to be recognized for that. And maybe someday, I'll forget that he made Hulk, which should've been one of the best comic book movies ever.

BEST PICTURE
My pick: Brokeback Mountain
Actual winner: Crash

Does it make any sense to say I'm not surprised Crash won, yet I'm stunned that Brokeback Mountain did not win? As I said on Friday, maybe I'm attributing too much to Brokeback's cultural impact, instead of its merit as a movie.

But I watched Crash again on Saturday night, and it's a good movie, but I just don't think it has as much to say about hate and intolerance, and how that affects people's lives. But maybe it does comment on those subjects in more of an everyday context by showing how anger seems ingrained in our society. I'm kind of thinking out loud here, trying to make sense of this.

(David Poland probably does a better job of explaining Crash's win at The Hot Button.)

To me, it was a disappointing end to a disappointing show, the end of which I had to force myself to stay up and watch. For those of you who watched, let alone stuck with it, what did you think?

Makin' my Oscar list and checkin' it twice

Oy, it's been one of those weeks. It seems like I've either been fighting a cold, dealing with pending computer issues (Hey, Toshiba! Feel free to process my #@$%ing order any time now!), or sitting - to quote myself from last night - "tit-deep" in all things Detroit Tigers for a magazine assignment.

So I have a few thoughts and ideas sitting in the "draft" box, waiting for some proper attention. I really do want to get to them, and not just because I want to, but because I should. So I will. Unfortunately, they'll probably have to wait until next week. If I don't do something to decompress, like walk around downtown, watch a movie, chill out with a book in a coffee shop, or peruse a bunch of stuff I shouldn't buy at a bookstore, my forehead might somehow crush itself under its own weight.

But with the Academy Awards coming up on Sunday night, I wanted to post my predictions. Just so I can brag (modestly, of course) if I get it right. I thought about live-blogging the show, but it's too damn long with so many awards that just don't warrant much response. Besides, that would keep me from chatting on the phone or instant-messaging, which is where most of the fun - unless you're at an Oscars party - comes in. I'll probably post some of my own awards, like I did last year, along with seeing how many picks I got wrong. I hope you guys join in, too.

Speaking of those picks...

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

Won't it be funny when the actress from Brokeback Mountain gets an award instead of the actors? But there's one moment when Williams really impressed me. When she catches her husband in a scenario she never imagined, she completely sold it. Many actresses probably would've overplayed it for the drama. But Williams didn't. Her devastation is all in her face. She's someone who doesn't know how to react. It seemed real to me, rather than acting.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Dillon - Crash

I don't know if it's much of a stretch, but this is my go-out-on-a-limb pick. My man-crush, George Clooney probably won't forgive me. And Jake Gyllenhaal could win this. But if Crash is going to win any award (besides Best Original Screenplay), I think it'll happen here. If you think this movie is important, its message is most represented through Dillon's character. This might also serve as kind of a reward to Dillon for his career. But it's not like his performance doesn't deserve it.

BEST ACTRESS
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line

It's surely unfair to say this is the weakest category when I've only seen one of the five nominated performances. But it looks that way to me. Walk the Line isn't much of a movie without Witherspoon because she has to make you believe she's someone Johnny Cash would fall in love with. And she does it. She's charming, she's funny, she's caring, and most of all, she's conflicted. And she shows her pain. But she's also fierce about what she believes in. This is the lock of the night.

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote

I know a lot of people think Heath Ledger should win this, and I wouldn't argue with that, but this should be the lock of the night. It's not about the funny voice and the arrogant personality (with a touch of flamboyance). It's about portraying a guy who's an outsider in one circumstance, and the life of the party in another. And he roots for something terrible to happen, knowing it will make his career, yet realizing it's wrong to wish for. Plus, isn't it about time Hoffman was rewarded for his work?

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain

I'll probably never forgive Ang Lee for making Hulk. That movie should've been - ahem - incredible. I don't know what the #@$% he was doing there. But I'm backing off a bit now, because he followed it up with a beautiful - and important - film. Lee doesn't hit you over the head with a message. He lets the images and the moments speak for themselves. And if Ledger, Gyllenhaal, and Williams are better here than in anything else they've done, shouldn't Lee get some credit for that?

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain

It's almost impossible not to consider this movie's cultural impact when discussing its merits. (How many bad Brokeback jokes have you heard lately?) Maybe it's not as good as Crash or Capote. But I think it is. And considering the significance it carries, that's more than enough to give it Best Picture. This movie matters. And how many times can you say that? If it doesn't win, we'll be looking back in 10 years and asking what the #@$% happened. Because in 10 years, we'll still be talking about this film.

And for the writers in the house, I have to mention the screenplay awards. No surprises, though. Crash (which, yes, I finally watched, and yes, Hoyt, I really liked it) will win the BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY award and Brokeback Mountain will get BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY. The best movies of the year get what they deserve.

I can't wait. Do I get too excited about the Oscars? Probably. But hey, I love movies. And how great a host is Jon Stewart going to be? C'mon over, we'll have a party. Bring dip. I have beer.